Public Research & Publications

How to Navigate the Geopolitical Challenges of 2023

According to Collins’ dictionary, 2022’s word of the year is “permacrisis”. Economic historian Adam Tooze has invoked the term “polycrisis”, which implies an inter-connectedness to the manifestations of crisis that creates a feedback loop, increasing the difficulty of finding resolution. The Economist magazine cautions us that “unpredictability is the new normal”. Nouriel Roubini, sometimes referred to as Dr. Doom, has just published a new book called “Megathreats”.

VAX Populi//Prospects for Pandemic Recovery, Resilience and Relapse

“The post-pandemic reboot to the global economy and the recovery trade are contingent upon progress with the vaccine rollout. Most investment research, accordingly, focuses on the vaccine supply chain and efficacy of rollout. But this approach leaves out crucial variables. The capacity for countries — governments and societies — for resilience and to quickly respond in the face of a variant or new pandemic threat is reflected in the colour on the heat map, which will be updated regularly to reflect changes in key variables”

VAX Populi, co-authored by Tina Fordham and Dr. Tsveta Petrova for Avonhurst, is a forward-looking, data-driven analytical tool targeting the “soft” risks and sources of resilience, drawing upon political science theory and historical research into the aftermath of pandemic crises across the world’s 30 largest economies. The results are surprising, and highly informative.

A Call to Action for Gender Equality and Women’s Economic Empowerment

Interested in promoting gender equality and learning how you or your company can accelerate the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals? To access the reports and toolkits produced by the UN High-Level Panel on Women’s Economic Empowerment click the button below.

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Although there is much in the world to be proud of, we still face enormous societal, environmental, and economic challenges. Even in this day and age, more than 2 billion people — a quarter of all humankind — lack access to even the most basic elements of life that most of us take for granted, such as clean water, sanitation, and energy…

Geopolitical Headwinds: U.S., Iran, and North Korea Time to Worry?

After a period of disinterest, investors have recently taken notice of political risks. First came the shift in U.S. trade policy (and fear of Chinese retaliation) and then the departure of two key advisers to U.S. President Trump: National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, who had opposed the tariff bill, and Rex Tillerson, Secretary of State, who had opposed President Trump’s often-stated intention to nullify the diplomatic deal on Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA)…

Women in the Economy II – How Implementing a Women’s Economic Empowerment Agenda Can Shape the Global Economy

Global Political Risk

In 2015 Citi published the Citi GPS report Women in the Economy: Global Growth Generators, which made the case that the role of women in the labour force should be incorporated as a mainstream topic within the debate on global growth for both economic as well as social reasons. In the new report, Citi digs deeper into the economic case for female economic empowerment through some fresh insights on the key issues as well as through a series of country case studies comparing the U.S. with Canada and Italy with Sweden. Alongside this, Citi produced a standalone investigation of the issues facing Japan where harnessing the potential of women in the economy will be vital to protecting even modest growth prospects in the country…

Taking it to the streets – What the New Vox Populi Risk Means for Politics, the Economy and Markets